Tropical Storm Newton

Tropical Storm Newton will continue to strengthen Monday, and is expected to make landfall over the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning or afternoon, potentially as a weak hurricane. It will then make a second landfall over northwest Mexico’s mainland Wednesday morning, before drifting into the Southwest U.S.

A hurricane warning has been issued for Baja California Sur, from La Paz to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, and north of La Paz to San Evaristo.

A hurricane watch is in effect for areas north of La Paz through San Evaristo, as well as areas north of Santa Fe through Cabo San Lazaro.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for areas north of San Evaristo through Santa Rosalia, north of Cabo San Lazaro through Punta Abreojos, and from Mazatlan to Guaymas.

Watches and Warnings

Watches and Warnings

A watch means hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning means those conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Newton is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa, as well as Baja California Sur, through midweek. Isolated amounts of up to 15 inches are possible in some areas.

This copious amount of rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain.

Additional Rainfall through Wednesday

Additional Rainfall through Wednesday

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

  • Tropical Storm Newton was located about 140 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, as of Monday morning.
  • The storm is forecast to strengthen over the next day and a half and could be near hurricane-strength as it makes landfall in the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning or afternoon.
  • It will then make a second landfall, likely as a tropical storm, over northwest Mexico’s mainland Wednesday morning.
  • Locally heavy rain, along with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa, as well as Baja California Sur, through midweek.
  • Newton is expected to move north-northwestward over the next day or so, and reach the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning or afternoon, likely as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane.
  • Swells generated by this storm along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and southern Baja California will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
  • This system will then impact the Southwest U.S. later this week as a tropical depression (more on this below).

(MORE: Hurricane Season OutlookHurricane Central)

Current Storm Status

Current Storm Status

As you can see on the NHC forecast cone below, Tropical Storm Newton is expected to move north-northwestward over the next day or so, and reach the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning or afternoon as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. It will then make a second landfall, likely as a tropical storm, over northwest Mexico’s mainland Wednesday morning.

Projected Path

Projected Path

The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. Note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding) with any tropical cyclone may spread beyond its forecast path.

Heavy Rain for the Southwest U.S. Later this Week?

After Newton makes landfall in northwest Mexico, it will continue on northward into the Southwest U.S. as a tropical depression by Wednesday night.

Parts of Arizona and far western New Mexico, including Tucson, Arizona, could pick up as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain from Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Rainfall Through Thursday

Rainfall Through Thursday

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