Tropical Storm Javier

Javier has not become better organized since yesterday evening,

with a significant decrease in the associated deep convection

aside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center.

Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at t3.0

corresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity.

Since the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the

next couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while

Javier moves near the Baja California peninsula.  The official

intensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the

intensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction.

Within the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and

an increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening.



Although the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that

the northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues.  Javier is forecast

to continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level

anticyclone centered over Texas.  The official forecast is slightly

to the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the

track guidance suite.



Although the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane,

it is prudent to keep the Hurricane Warning in place for the

southern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force

hurricane hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon.


Surge of Tropical Moisture From Javier Headed For Southwest U.S.

August 8, 2016

A surge of moisture associated with Tropical Storm Javier will result in stormy conditions for the Southwest starting late Tuesday.

Moisture from Javier and to its east will be pulled into the Southwest U.S. by a southward dip in the jet stream.

(FORECAST: Javier Near Baja California)

The center of Javier will remain well away from the Southwest U.S. and will dissipate near Baja California by early Wednesday. However, moisture associated with Javier and moisture to its east will get pulled north by a southward dip in the jet stream in the western United States.

All of this means that we will see widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and southern Colorado late Tuesday-Thursday.

(FORECAST: Albuquerque | Flagstaff | Phoenix | Tucson)

The usual impacts from monsoonal moisture surges into the Southwest will be in play. This includes blowing dust, heavy rainfall, flash flooding and dangerous lightning.

Rainfall totals are forecast to be 1-3 inches in parts of the Southwest, though locally higher amounts are possible.


Rainfall Forecast
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One Comment

  1. Juan del Norte
    Posted August 8, 2016 at 09:20 | Permalink | Reply

    Bring ti on, Javier! We need it badly.

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