Baja Winter Rain Forecast

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BY JAVIER CRUZ AGUIRRE
Ensenada, 21 November.- Updating the rain forecast for Baja California and the status of the weather phenomenon El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Centre for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada (Cicese) predicted an increase in rainfall in the state from December; February will be the month with more rains throughout the season.

Regarding the strength and permanence of ENSO, the Department of Meteorology warned that Cicese remain strong until the end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, gradually weakening towards the spring of 2016.

A joint report Meteorologist Higareda Santiago Cervera, the researcher Edgar Pavia and the Department of Computer and Peace Unit, all of Cicese reveals that in November the rainfall anomaly with respect to the climate of the entity will be between 100-125 per percent above the average for the coastal region, the equivalent of 26 to 30 millimeters of precipitation of water above normal.

But in December the anomaly will grow 175 percent in Tijuana and Rosarito; will reach 200 percent in Tecate, Ensenada and Mexicali, and San Quentin and the rest of southern municipality of the state is 225 to record rainfall averages between 50 to 70 millimeters of rainfall.

The trend of increased rain will continue in January 2016, when Tijuana, Rosarito and Ensenada will have 275 percent of rainfall above normal for coastal weather; San Quintin and San Felipe record 250, Mexicali and its valley will grow from 300 to 350, and south of Ensenada (El Rosario at Parallel 28) fluctuate between 300-375 percent above average.

February has forecast more heavy rain; CICESE indicates that Tijuana, Rosarito and Ensenada fluctuate between 275-300 percent above normal climate (ie up to 90 millimeters of rainwater historic month average), Tecate reach 325, Mexicali 250-300 and San Quintin, San Felipe and the rest of the south of the state will have 300 to 400 percent more rainfall.

By March the percentage and amount of rainfall will be less. Tijuana, Rosarito, Ensenada, Tecate and San Quentin can register 175 percent; 150 San Felipe and Mexicali receive between 175-225.

The researcher of the Department of Physical Oceanography Division of Oceanology Edgar Pavia recalled that El Niño favors most often above average rainfall (over 250 mm) in northwestern Baja California.

Regarding ENSO meteorologist Higareda Santiago Cervera, head of the Laboratory of Meteorology Physical Oceanography Department, released the update to the November 18 state of “El Niño”.

It established that the conditions of the “strong” El Niño are still present, the positive anomalies of the sea surface temperatures continue in most of the Pacific Ocean, and said there are about 95 percent likelihood of ENSO continue during the winter 2015 -2016 Northern Hemisphere, gradually weakening towards the spring of 2016.

He noted that in preparing the report updated information Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that last October was the warmest of the planet since 1880 began to be continuously record was taken.

According to NOAA, the global average temperature in October reached 15.9 degrees Celsius, which is more than 0.85 degrees in average sea surface temperature recorded in the twentieth century. El Niño influenced prominently in recorded weather conditions, the agency said.

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