It will grow “El Niño” 2015-2016
The importance of reviewing these events is to refresh your memory, that tends to fade with long periods of drought
Images of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology assigned to NASA. Comparative 97-2015. The white areas are the higher temperatures, followed by red, orange, green, blue and purple.
By Jose Alfredo Cañas / COLLABORATION *
Ensenada, BC – Every day there is greater certainty that the weather phenomenon known as “El Niño” will have a significant magnitude and contributions The following comments are based on experience with previous events, and in the area of previous reporting..
Therefore, we will refer to “El Niño” winter 1997-1998, which, when compared with that expected for the period 2015-2016 and taking reference to the images 97-98 to 2015-16, we realize the current has a greater potential.
Images of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology assigned to NASA. Comparative 97-2015.
The white areas are the higher temperatures, followed by red, orange, green, blue and purple.
The Topex-Poseidon and Jason 2 satellites were launched, the first in August 1992 in collaboration with the (NASA, for its acronym in English) and the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES, for its acronym in French) and operated until all his life in October 2005. The Jason 2 satellite oceanography began work in December 2001.
Both satellite radar altimetry, detect increases in the sea level up to an inch precision, measuring therefore expansion or sea level rise, information which in turn sheds surface ocean temperatures, which can be used basis for predicting and / or monitoring of performance of “El Niño”.
With these satellites, scientists can also calculate the speed and direction of ocean currents and weather patterns develop.
No doubt there are now institutions and researchers who have fortunately instruments, methodology and sources of information to make weather forecasts, particularly in our city of Ensenada.
97-98 winter and hurricane “Nora”
The September 25, 1997, very early, Hurricane “Nora”, made landfall in Baja California, entering Turtle Bay with maximum winds of 140 kilometers per hour (km / h), returned to sea and returned to earth , crossed the peninsula transversely, and as a tropical storm, hit the north of San Felipe, causing heavy damage to boats that port continued over the Gulf of California, and Arizona was downgraded to a tropical depression even with winds of 40 km / h.
While passing through the town of Ensenada, left strong flood water in streams near El Rosario, unusual event for locals, because without rain, saw amazed how grew Avenue streams due to the tropical storm “Nora” , unloaded large amount of water in the Baja California mountains.
Hurricane “Nora”, thus became the only record that had reached the height of the 28th parallel, a situation facilitated by the high temperatures on the coast of Baja California, because of “El Niño” and other factors.
In the urban area of Ensenada, the phenomenon of “El Niño”, leave heavy rains in winter 97-98, recorded in February 1998, the highest rainfall of the last 50 years, and in that same month, exceeding the 400 millimeters (mm), according to records of the Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education (Cicese).
These rainfall in Ensenada, peaked at 555 mm, more than double the annual average. In that event, including the Carnival he was suspended the last days, which speaks for itself the intensity of the weather phenomenon.
Showers in the country
The annual precipitation for Baja California, according to the National Water Commission (Conagua) and the National Weather Service (NWS) – in the period from 1941 to 2005 was an average of 203.47 mm, the second lowest in the country only after Baja California Sur with 176.2 mm, contrasting with the states of Tabasco and greater precipitation with 405 mm 2000, Chiapas, with a thousand 968 mm, and Oaxaca, with 518.8 thousand mm.
The importance of reviewing these events is to refresh your memory, that tends to fade with long periods of drought, so it is considered urgent to activate the mechanisms of prevention and protection.
Among these is the Municipal Council of Civil Protection, which chairs the mayor, whose technical secretariat is the Town Clerk.
All around federal, state and municipal agencies like the Port Authority and the Port Authority of Ensenada and civilian agencies like the Red Cross, armed forces, and institutions of higher research and media group .
No need to invent much, just enough to update this committee in each municipality of Baja California that well before the start of the rainy season should be reactivated.
So the council can go dusting off the rules of this committee, and assist in their operation, and that depends minimize its impact on the population, and in the sea and air transport.
Authorities and citizens
Prevention is everyone, citizens can not desazolvar clean sewers or streams, but they can avoid obstructing; also check their homes, not just leaks and runoff, but moisture in walls that affect mainly children and the elderly. There is little time, but enough to make the improvements required by the housing and which has been postponed.
The municipal and state authority, through Civil Protection, have specific tasks, such as reviewing risk areas, prepare shelters and difundur information and guidance to citizens.
The media should be a determinant in spreading awareness and prevention factor and timely inform the public how the requirements and recommendations of the institutions designated as universities, research institutes and government.
The hurricane season in the Pacific concludes on November 30
Dolores reached hurricane to tropical storm as Tijuana and San Diego in July 2015.
The next image Jason 2 will appear around September 5, it will provide more certainty forecasts.
* The author acknowledges the assistance and review of Luis H. Mendoza Garcilazo, Cicese researcher, Division of Earth Sciences.